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Country may face 2.1m cotton bale output shortfall

* Cotton sowing areas more than 10% behind the target

By Ijaz Kakakhel

ISLAMABAD: The country’s cotton production is likely to remain 12 million bales from sowing areas of 2.875 million hectares, against the annual target 14.1 million bales from 3.20 million hectares set by the government for the outgoing Kharif season 2008-09.

Last year, the government had achieved cotton output of 11.65 million bales from 3.05 million hectares sowing areas.

Cotton areas sown this season were provisionally reported at 2.969 million hectares, which was over 10 percent less than the target and almost six percent less than the last year.

The province-wise shortfall of cotton areas recorded was: Punjab 2.294 million hectares (mh) against the target 2.520mh, showing a net area shortfall 8.9 percent of the target area.

In Sindh, the target area for cotton sowing was 0.630mh and actual areas sown was 0.540mh showing a 14.28 percent shortfall of the targeted area.

Similarly in Balochistan and NWFP, the targeted cotton area was 0.050 mh, but the actual area under cotton sowing recorded 0.023 mh, showing an 18 percent shortfall of the targeted areas under cotton sowing.

Officials in the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) attributed the inability to achieve the target of cotton crop sowing areas to the late release of irrigation water in the early season and power disruption.

Besides, farmers in some areas were reportedly more interested in cultivating rice on account of its higher prices.

Regarding the current crop condition, the officials said the average plant population and number of bolls are reported to be more than last year, both in the Punjab and Sindh. Among various insect pests, incidence of white fly, mealy bug and mites was higher than last year in Punjab. Cotton leaf curl virus of low intensity was recorded in the districts of Multan, Vehari, Bahawalpur, Lodhran, Khanewal and Muzaffargarh.

Cotton prices are likely to remain at soaring levels with lower production and comparatively higher consumption. He said lack of expertise in fighting cotton virus and minimising crop from heavy rainfall, around 20 percent crop in the Punjab and interior Sindh has been affected.

Pakistan would not able to achieve next cotton crop target in 2008-09 unless production of quality seeds, supply of quality inputs and water availability is not assured, a MINFAL official said.

About world cotton production, the officials said that it was expected to decline by 6 percent in 2008-09 to 113.6 million bales (480 lbs each) due to the decline in world cotton area caused by increased competition from alternative crops.

The world yield was projected down by one percent to 779 kg per hectare from the record of 787 kg per hectare reached in 2007-08, but it would remain the second highest yield to date.

They said that the projected decrease in world production in 2008-09 was driven by an expected fall of production in the US to 13.8 m bales from 19.2 million bales of last year. Production was also expected ton decline significantly in Turkey, China (mainland), Brazil and Egypt.

The officials further informed that the world cotton mill use was expected to decline by one percent in 2008-09 to 120.5 million bales, due to slower global economic growth and higher prices of cotton relative to polyester. Cotton mill use is expected to decrease in 2008-09 in Turkey, the US, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, Thailand, Russia, China (Taiwan) and the Republic of Korea. However, cotton mill use is expected to continue to increase, more slowly in China.

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